League One (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 14:00 · Cardiff City vs Northampton Town
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 71%
A 19% draw. The market says 13%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cardiff City71%80%−9
OursMarket
Draw19%13%+6
OursMarket
Northampton Town10%7%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 69% | −23 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 93% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 20% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 87% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 92% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 22 · v Port Vale (H)1-0
- Apr 18 · at Reading (A)3-1
- Apr 14 · at Huddersfield Town (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)2-0
- Apr 6 · at Peterborough United (A)1-1
Northampton Town
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 18 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)1-3
- Apr 15 · at Luton Town (A)1-2
- Apr 6 · v Wigan Athletic (H)1-3
- Apr 3 · at Bradford City (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · at Mansfield Town (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 0-1-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.