EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 18:00 · Cardiff City vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 35%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cardiff City51%35%+17
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−2
OursMarket
Norwich City24%39%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 53% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 61% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 65% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 47% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Aug 22 · at Derby County (A)2-2
- Aug 17 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Swindon Town (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Mansfield Town (A)4-5
- Apr 25 · v Northampton Town (H)5-1
Norwich City
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 22 · at Millwall (A)0-3
- Aug 15 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)4-1
- May 2 · at Hull City (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Swansea City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.