Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:00 · Cardiff City vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 37%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cardiff City53%37%+16
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−2
OursMarket
Sheffield United23%37%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 55% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 63% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 63% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 50% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 25 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Derby County (A)2-2
- Aug 17 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Swindon Town (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Mansfield Town (A)4-5
Sheffield United
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Aug 25 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Swansea City (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · v Birmingham City (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Mansfield Town (A)3-0
- May 2 · at Derby County (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.