Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 8 · 18:45 · Cardiff City vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 44%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cardiff City56%44%+13
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−1
OursMarket
Stoke City20%31%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 63% | −15 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 69% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 56% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 59% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 5 · at Portsmouth (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Sheffield United (H)2-2
- Aug 25 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Derby County (A)2-2
Stoke City
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 5 · v Charlton Athletic (H)4-0
- Sep 1 · v Norwich City (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Wolverhampton (A)1-4
- Aug 25 · v Hull City (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Southampton (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.