EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Cardiff City vs Swindon Town
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 51%
A 24% away win. The market says 11%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cardiff City51%71%−20
OursMarket
Draw25%18%+7
OursMarket
Swindon Town24%11%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 89% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 29% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 82% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 86% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- May 2 · at Mansfield Town (A)4-5
- Apr 25 · v Northampton Town (H)5-1
- Apr 22 · v Port Vale (H)1-0
- Apr 18 · at Reading (A)3-1
- Apr 14 · at Huddersfield Town (A)1-1
Swindon Town
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- May 2 · v Chesterfield (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Grimsby Town (A)0-4
- Apr 18 · v Accrington Stanley (H)2-2
- Apr 10 · at Colchester United (A)0-3
- Apr 6 · v Walsall (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.