Championship (England) · Tue, Oct 13 · 18:45 · Cardiff City vs Watford
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 50%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cardiff City50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Watford25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 64% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v Stoke City (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Portsmouth (A)0-2
Watford
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Burnley (H)0-4
- Sep 18 · at Bristol City (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Stoke City (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.