Championship (England) · Mon, Aug 17 · 19:00 · Cardiff City vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Cardiff City win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 39%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cardiff City56%39%+17
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Wrexham21%34%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 66% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 61% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 54% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cardiff City
WinWinWinLossWin
- Aug 8 · v Swindon Town (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Mansfield Town (A)4-5
- Apr 25 · v Northampton Town (H)5-1
- Apr 22 · v Port Vale (H)1-0
- Apr 18 · at Reading (A)3-1
Wrexham
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Aug 7 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
- May 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Apr 26 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
- Apr 21 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Cardiff City | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.