National League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:30 · Carlisle United vs Kidderminster Harriers
Likeliest: Carlisle United win · 59%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Carlisle United59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Kidderminster Harriers18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Carlisle United
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Oct 3 · at Aldershot Town (A)3-1
- Sep 29 · at AFC Fylde (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Woking (H)2-5
- Sep 19 · at Eastleigh (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Forest Green Rovers (H)1-1
Kidderminster Harriers
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 3 · v Sutton United (H)1-1
- Sep 29 · at Boreham Wood (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Yeovil Town (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Woking (A)0-0
- Sep 16 · v Gateshead (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Carlisle United | Kidderminster Harriers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.