FA Cup (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Carlisle United vs Tamworth
Likeliest: Carlisle United win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 69% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Carlisle United62%60%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Tamworth17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 58% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Carlisle United
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Kidderminster Harriers (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Aldershot Town (A)3-1
- Sep 29 · at AFC Fylde (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Woking (H)2-5
- Sep 19 · at Eastleigh (A)0-1
Tamworth
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Barrow AFC (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Hartlepool United (A)1-0
- Sep 30 · v Sutton United (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Aldershot Town (A)1-5
- Sep 19 · v Wealdstone (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Carlisle United | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.