Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Sep 5 · 17:30 · Carrarese vs Empoli
Likeliest: Carrarese win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 40%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Carrarese51%40%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−5
OursMarket
Empoli25%31%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 43% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 69% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 60% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 56% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Carrarese
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 29 · at Ascoli (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Mantova (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · at Torino (A)0-1
- May 8 · at Virtus Entella (A)1-2
- May 1 · v Cesena (H)0-0
Empoli
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Aug 30 · at Mantova (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Aug 17 · at Pisa (A)1-1
- May 8 · at Monza (A)2-2
- May 1 · v Avellino (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Carrarese | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.