Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · Carrarese vs Modena
Likeliest: Modena win · 55%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Carrarese18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Modena55%52%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 30% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Carrarese
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · at Padova (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Benevento (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Catanzaro (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Empoli (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Ascoli (A)1-1
Modena
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 11 · v Hellas Verona (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · v Empoli (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Südtirol (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Avellino (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at Cremonese (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Carrarese | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.