Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Sep 12 · 17:00 · Casa Pia vs FC Porto
Likeliest: FC Porto win · 80%
A tight one: we make it 80% for the away win. The market says 76%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Casa Pia6%8%−2
OursMarket
Draw14%16%−2
OursMarket
FC Porto80%76%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 20% | 24% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 7% | 9% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.6 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Casa Pia
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 6 · at Vitória SC (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Moreirense (H)0-1
- Aug 24 · at Gil Vicente (A)0-2
- Aug 17 · v Benfica (H)0-7
- Aug 8 · at Marítimo (A)0-1
FC Porto
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 8 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
- Sep 4 · v Moreirense (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Académico Viseu FC (A)3-0
- Aug 23 · v FC Arouca (H)2-0
- Aug 15 · at Rio Ave (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Casa Pia | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.