Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:30 · Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
Likeliest: Santa Clara win · 52%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Casa Pia18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Santa Clara52%50%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 30% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Casa Pia
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 20 · at Estoril Praia (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Porto (H)1-4
- Sep 6 · at Vitória SC (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Moreirense (H)0-1
- Aug 24 · at Gil Vicente (A)0-2
Santa Clara
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v Sporting Braga (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at FC Arouca (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Rio Ave (H)4-0
- Aug 29 · at FC Alverca (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Famalicão (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Casa Pia | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.