Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Sep 12 · 15:15 · Catanzaro vs Carrarese
Likeliest: Catanzaro win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Catanzaro45%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+1
OursMarket
Carrarese25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 65% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Catanzaro
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 5 · at Südtirol (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Pisa (A)1-2
- Aug 21 · at L.R. Vicenza (A)2-3
- Aug 15 · v Südtirol (H)2-2
- May 29 · at Monza (A)2-0
Carrarese
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 5 · v Empoli (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Ascoli (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Mantova (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · at Torino (A)0-1
- May 8 · at Virtus Entella (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Catanzaro | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.