Serie B (Italy) · Sun, May 24 · 18:00 · Catanzaro vs Monza
Likeliest: Catanzaro win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 33%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Catanzaro51%33%+18
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
Monza26%38%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 50% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 55% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 62% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 67% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 46% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Catanzaro
LossLossWinWinLoss
- May 20 · at Palermo (A)0-2
- May 17 · v Palermo (H)3-0
- May 12 · v Avellino (H)3-0
- May 8 · v Bari 1908 (H)2-3
- May 1 · at Palermo (A)2-3
Monza
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- May 19 · v Juve Stabia (H)2-1
- May 16 · at Juve Stabia (A)2-2
- May 8 · v Empoli (H)2-2
- May 1 · at Mantova (A)2-3
- Apr 24 · v Modena (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Catanzaro | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.