Coppa Italia (Italy) · Sat, Aug 15 · 16:00 · Catanzaro vs Südtirol
Likeliest: Catanzaro win · 62%
A 62% home win. The market says 45%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Catanzaro62%45%+17
OursMarket
Draw20%29%−9
OursMarket
Südtirol18%26%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 74% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 55% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 71% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 64% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Catanzaro
WinWinLossLossWin
- May 29 · at Monza (A)2-0
- May 24 · v Monza (H)0-2
- May 20 · at Palermo (A)0-2
- May 17 · v Palermo (H)3-0
- May 12 · v Avellino (H)3-0
Südtirol
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- May 22 · v Bari 1908 (H)0-0
- May 15 · at Bari 1908 (A)0-0
- May 8 · v Juve Stabia (H)1-1
- May 1 · at Sampdoria (A)0-1
- Apr 25 · v Mantova (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Catanzaro | Südtirol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.