Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sat, Sep 26 · 01:00 · Cavalry FC vs FC Supra Du Quebec
Likeliest: Cavalry FC win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cavalry FC59%61%−2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
FC Supra Du Quebec20%17%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 83% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 39% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cavalry FC
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v Forge FC (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Pacific FC (A)1-0
- Sep 7 · at HFX Wanderers FC (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Vancouver FC (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)3-1
FC Supra Du Quebec
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · at Atlético Ottawa (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v HFX Wanderers FC (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Vancouver FC (A)2-3
- Aug 28 · v Forge FC (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · at York United FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cavalry FC | FC Supra Du Quebec |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-0 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.