Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sat, Sep 19 · 21:00 · Cavalry FC vs Forge FC
Likeliest: Cavalry FC win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cavalry FC40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+2
OursMarket
Forge FC27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cavalry FC
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Pacific FC (A)1-0
- Sep 7 · at HFX Wanderers FC (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Vancouver FC (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · v Forge FC (H)2-1
Forge FC
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 12 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · v York United FC (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Pacific FC (H)2-0
- Aug 19 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Cavalry FC | Forge FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-0 | 3-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.