Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC
Likeliest: Cavalry FC win · 74%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 74% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cavalry FC74%78%−3
OursMarket
Draw16%14%+2
OursMarket
Pacific FC10%8%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 71% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 92% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 22% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 86% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 90% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cavalry FC
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 12 · at HFX Wanderers FC (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · at York United FC (A)1-3
- Sep 30 · at Atlético Ottawa (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Forge FC (H)1-1
Pacific FC
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Atlético Ottawa (H)0-2
- Oct 7 · at Forge FC (A)0-3
- Oct 4 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)0-5
- Sep 27 · at York United FC (A)4-3
- Sep 20 · v Vancouver FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cavalry FC | Pacific FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.