Canadian Premier League (Canada) · Sun, Oct 25 · 20:00 · Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC
Likeliest: Cavalry FC win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cavalry FC62%62%0
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+1
OursMarket
Vancouver FC16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 38% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cavalry FC
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Pacific FC (H)4-2
- Oct 12 · at HFX Wanderers FC (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · at York United FC (A)1-3
- Sep 30 · at Atlético Ottawa (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v FC Supra Du Quebec (H)0-0
Vancouver FC
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v HFX Wanderers FC (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at FC Supra Du Quebec (A)2-2
- Sep 26 · v Forge FC (H)1-1
- Sep 24 · v York United FC (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Pacific FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cavalry FC | Vancouver FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.