Super Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:00 · Çaykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe
Likeliest: Fenerbahçe win · 57%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Çaykur Rizespor18%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Fenerbahçe57%54%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 28% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Çaykur Rizespor
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Göztepe (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Eyüpspor (A)2-0
- Sep 7 · v Alanyaspor (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Gaziantep FK (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Samsunspor (H)0-2
Fenerbahçe
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 20 · v Eyüpspor (H)8-0
- Sep 14 · at Gaziantep FK (A)0-0
- Sep 10 · v Roma (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Beşiktaş (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Samsunspor (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Çaykur Rizespor | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.