La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Oct 4 · 16:30 · CD Castellón vs AD Ceuta
Likeliest: CD Castellón win · 79%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 79% for the home win. The market says 75%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Castellón79%75%+3
OursMarket
Draw14%15%−2
OursMarket
AD Ceuta8%9%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 91% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 25% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Castellón
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 28 · at Leganés (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v CD Tenerife (H)5-0
- Sep 12 · at Girona FC (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Albacete Balompié (H)2-0
- Aug 31 · at Celta Vigo B (A)2-1
AD Ceuta
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 26 · v Real Sociedad B (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Real Valladolid (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Burgos Club de Fútbol (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Celta Vigo B (H)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Mallorca (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | CD Castellón | AD Ceuta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.