La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Oct 25 · 17:30 · CD Castellón vs Sporting Gijón
Likeliest: CD Castellón win · 66%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Castellón66%63%+3
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Sporting Gijón13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 37% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Castellón
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Las Palmas (A)3-0
- Oct 11 · at FC Andorra (A)0-1
- Oct 4 · v AD Ceuta (H)1-1
- Sep 28 · at Leganés (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v CD Tenerife (H)5-0
Sporting Gijón
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Albacete Balompié (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Cádiz (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · v Celta Vigo B (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · at FC Andorra (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | CD Castellón | Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-0 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.