La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:30 · CD Eldense vs Córdoba
Likeliest: CD Eldense win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Eldense38%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Córdoba35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Eldense
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 2 · v Real Oviedo (H)4-1
- Sep 27 · at Burgos Club de Fútbol (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Eibar (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Sporting Gijón (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Mallorca (H)0-0
Córdoba
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 5 · v CD Tenerife (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · at Real Valladolid (A)1-3
- Sep 18 · at Albacete Balompié (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Almería (H)0-2
- Sep 7 · at CE Sabadell (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | CD Eldense | Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.