La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Sep 5 · 19:00 · CD Eldense vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Eldense31%27%+3
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Mallorca47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 38% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Eldense
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 29 · at Leganés (A)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Cádiz (H)2-2
- Aug 17 · at Almería (A)0-3
- Dec 16 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-2
- Dec 3 · v Almería (H)2-1
Mallorca
LossWinWinLossWin
- Aug 30 · v AD Ceuta (H)3-0
- Aug 24 · at Granada (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-0
- May 23 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-0
- May 17 · at Levante (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | CD Eldense | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.