Liga MX (Mexico) · Wed, Oct 21 · 00:07 · CD Guadalajara vs Club Necaxa
Likeliest: CD Guadalajara win · 96%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 96% for the home win. The market says 94%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Guadalajara96%94%+2
OursMarket
Draw3%4%−1
OursMarket
Club Necaxa1%2%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% | 82% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 25% | 27% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 99% | 98% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 4% | 6% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 97% | 96% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 99% | 98% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Guadalajara
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Tigres UANL (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Atlas FC (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Querétaro FC (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Club América (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Pumas UNAM (H)3-0
Club Necaxa
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Atlas FC (H)0-2
- Oct 11 · at CF Pachuca (A)3-3
- Sep 28 · v Club América (H)2-4
- Sep 19 · at Atlético San Luis (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Club Puebla (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | CD Guadalajara | Club Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.