Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Sep 26 · 23:07 · CD Guadalajara vs Querétaro FC
Likeliest: CD Guadalajara win · 71%
A tight one: we make it 71% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Guadalajara71%68%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%19%−2
OursMarket
Querétaro FC12%13%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 87% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 32% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Guadalajara
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Club América (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Pumas UNAM (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Atlético San Luis (A)3-0
- Aug 29 · at CF Pachuca (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Club Tijuana (H)5-2
Querétaro FC
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 21 · v Club León (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Club Tijuana (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Atlas FC (A)3-1
- Aug 22 · v CD Toluca (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · at Pumas UNAM (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | CD Guadalajara | Querétaro FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.