Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:07 · CD Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL
Likeliest: CD Guadalajara win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Guadalajara50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Tigres UANL22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Guadalajara
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Atlas FC (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Querétaro FC (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Club América (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Pumas UNAM (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Atlético San Luis (A)3-0
Tigres UANL
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · v CD Toluca (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · v Club Puebla (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at FC Juárez (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · at CF Monterrey (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Club Necaxa (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | CD Guadalajara | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.