Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 25 · 18:15 · CD Moquegua vs Alianza Lima
Likeliest: Alianza Lima win · 65%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 65% for the away win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Moquegua11%15%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Alianza Lima65%61%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 85% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 14% | 20% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Moquegua
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · at FC Cajamarca (A)1-0
- Oct 8 · v Cienciano (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at ADC Juan Pablo II (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Cusco FC (A)0-2
Alianza Lima
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Club Atlético Grau (H)3-1
- Oct 11 · at Cusco FC (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Asociación Deportiva Tarma (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Universitario (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at ADC Juan Pablo II (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | CD Moquegua | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-3 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.