Liga 1 (Peru) · Thu, Oct 8 · 18:00 · CD Moquegua vs Cienciano
Likeliest: Cienciano win · 47%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Moquegua28%28%0
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Cienciano47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 39% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Moquegua
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 20 · at ADC Juan Pablo II (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Cusco FC (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v Alianza Atlético de Sullana (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · at Sport Huancayo (A)2-0
Cienciano
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 30 · v Los Chankas CYC (H)1-1
- Sep 23 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FC Cajamarca (A)5-2
| Last 10 games | CD Moquegua | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-2 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.