Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:30 · CD Nacional vs Famalicão
Likeliest: Famalicão win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Nacional23%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
Famalicão47%46%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 36% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Nacional
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v FC Alverca (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Sporting (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v CF Estrela Amadora (H)2-3
- Aug 23 · at Vitória SC (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Estoril Praia (H)2-0
Famalicão
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · v Sporting (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at CF Estrela Amadora (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v Gil Vicente (H)0-0
- Aug 23 · at Santa Clara (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Marítimo (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | CD Nacional | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-4 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.