Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:30 · CD Nacional vs FC Alverca
Likeliest: FC Alverca win · 35%
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Nacional34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+2
OursMarket
FC Alverca35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Nacional
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 5 · at Sporting (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v CF Estrela Amadora (H)2-3
- Aug 23 · at Vitória SC (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Estoril Praia (H)2-0
- Aug 10 · at Santa Clara (A)2-2
FC Alverca
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 5 · v Sporting Braga (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Santa Clara (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Sporting (A)1-3
- Aug 15 · v CF Estrela Amadora (H)2-2
- Aug 9 · at FC Porto (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | CD Nacional | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.