Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Oct 25 · 18:00 · CD Nacional vs Sporting Braga
Likeliest: Sporting Braga win · 65%
Likely score: 0–1
A 65% away win. The market says 61%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Nacional12%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Sporting Braga65%61%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 21% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Nacional
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at AD Sanjoanense (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · at Rio Ave (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Famalicão (H)0-4
- Sep 12 · v FC Alverca (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Sporting (A)0-2
Sporting Braga
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 19 · v Gil Vicente (H)1-2
- Oct 15 · at FC København (A)0-3
- Oct 9 · v Sporting (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · at Santa Clara (A)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Estoril Praia (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | CD Nacional | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.