División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sun, Sep 13 · 23:30 · CD Real Tomayapo vs Bolívar
Likeliest: Bolívar win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the away win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Real Tomayapo15%15%0
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Bolívar63%66%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 34% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 85% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 18% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Real Tomayapo
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 6 · at The Strongest (A)1-3
- Aug 26 · at Real Potosí (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Club Always Ready (H)1-1
- Aug 14 · at FC Universitario de Vinto (A)1-0
- Aug 7 · v CDT Real Oruro (H)1-2
Bolívar
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Independiente Petrolero (A)4-0
- Aug 28 · v Academia del Balompié Boliviano (H)4-1
- Aug 23 · at CDT Real Oruro (A)4-2
- Aug 19 · at São Paulo (A)1-3
- Aug 15 · v San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | CD Real Tomayapo | Bolívar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.