División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 00:00 · CD Real Tomayapo vs GV San José
Likeliest: CD Real Tomayapo win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Real Tomayapo50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
GV San José25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Real Tomayapo
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 9 · at San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (A)0-0
- Sep 17 · v Oriente Petrolero (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Bolívar (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at The Strongest (A)1-3
- Aug 26 · at Real Potosí (A)1-0
GV San José
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 12 · v Guabirá (H)4-1
- Sep 18 · at Bolívar (A)2-4
- Sep 12 · v Nacional Potosí (H)0-3
- Sep 5 · at Club Aurora (A)0-3
- Aug 25 · v Oriente Petrolero (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | CD Real Tomayapo | GV San José |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-3 | 0-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.