División Profesional (Bolivia) · Thu, Sep 17 · 22:30 · CD Real Tomayapo vs Oriente Petrolero
Likeliest: CD Real Tomayapo win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Real Tomayapo45%48%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+3
OursMarket
Oriente Petrolero28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 63% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Real Tomayapo
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 13 · v Bolívar (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at The Strongest (A)1-3
- Aug 26 · at Real Potosí (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Club Always Ready (H)1-1
- Aug 14 · at FC Universitario de Vinto (A)1-0
Oriente Petrolero
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Real Potosí (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Club Always Ready (H)1-2
- Aug 25 · at GV San José (A)3-3
- Aug 22 · v San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (H)4-0
- Aug 15 · at CDT Real Oruro (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | CD Real Tomayapo | Oriente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 2-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.