La Liga 2 (Spain) · Mon, Oct 12 · 19:00 · CD Tenerife vs Girona FC
Likeliest: Girona FC win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Tenerife31%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
Girona FC37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Tenerife
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 5 · at Córdoba (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v Cádiz (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at CD Castellón (A)0-5
- Sep 13 · v Leganés (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Real Sociedad B (A)1-1
Girona FC
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 4 · v Mallorca (H)0-0
- Sep 25 · v Albacete Balompié (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Cádiz (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v CD Castellón (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Sporting Gijón (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | CD Tenerife | Girona FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-3 | 3-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.