Liga MX (Mexico) · Sun, Oct 18 · 01:00 · CD Toluca vs Atlético San Luis
Likeliest: CD Toluca win · 73%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 73% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Toluca73%71%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Atlético San Luis11%12%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 29% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Toluca
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Tigres UANL (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · at Cruz Azul (A)3-3
- Sep 21 · v Santos Laguna (H)2-3
- Sep 16 · at Club Puebla (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Atlas FC (H)5-2
Atlético San Luis
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v Santos Laguna (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Pumas UNAM (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Club Necaxa (H)3-1
- Sep 15 · at Club León (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v CD Guadalajara (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | CD Toluca | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.