Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Sun, Sep 6 · 01:00 · CD Toluca vs CF Monterrey
Likeliest: CD Toluca win · 51%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Toluca51%49%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
CF Monterrey26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 63% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Toluca
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 3 · v Club León (H)2-0
- Aug 31 · v FC Juárez (H)4-0
- Aug 27 · v Austin FC (H)2-0
- Aug 22 · at Querétaro FC (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Atlante FC (A)0-0
CF Monterrey
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 3 · at Club América (A)2-2
- Aug 31 · v Atlético San Luis (H)1-3
- Aug 26 · v Chicago Fire (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Club León (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · v FC Juárez (H)6-1
| Last 10 games | CD Toluca | CF Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.