Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Thu, Sep 3 · 01:00 · CD Toluca vs Club León
Likeliest: CD Toluca win · 67%
A 67% home win. The market says 50%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Toluca67%50%+17
OursMarket
Draw19%25%−6
OursMarket
Club León15%25%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 75% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 50% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 75% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 67% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Toluca
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 31 · v FC Juárez (H)4-0
- Aug 27 · v Austin FC (H)2-0
- Aug 22 · at Querétaro FC (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Atlante FC (A)0-0
- Aug 13 · v FC Dallas (H)0-0
Club León
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 29 · at Atlante FC (A)1-1
- Aug 26 · v Real Salt Lake (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · v CF Monterrey (H)2-0
- Aug 18 · at Club Necaxa (A)2-1
- Aug 12 · at Inter Miami CF (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | CD Toluca | Club León |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-2 | 3-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.