Liga MX (Mexico) · Thu, Oct 22 · 01:00 · CD Toluca vs Club Tijuana
Likeliest: CD Toluca win · 68%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Toluca68%66%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Club Tijuana13%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 63% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 34% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Toluca
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v Atlético San Luis (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Tigres UANL (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · at Cruz Azul (A)3-3
- Sep 21 · v Santos Laguna (H)2-3
- Sep 16 · at Club Puebla (A)1-0
Club Tijuana
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Club Puebla (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at FC Juárez (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Atlas FC (H)0-0
- Sep 21 · at CF Pachuca (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Querétaro FC (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | CD Toluca | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.