Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Thu, Aug 13 · 02:00 · CD Toluca vs FC Dallas
Likeliest: CD Toluca win · 62%
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CD Toluca62%59%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%21%−2
OursMarket
FC Dallas18%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CD Toluca
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 9 · v Los Angeles FC (H)0-1
- Aug 6 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)3-0
- Aug 3 · v Club Necaxa (H)3-1
- Jul 22 · v Pumas UNAM (H)1-2
- Jul 19 · at CD Guadalajara (A)2-0
FC Dallas
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 9 · at CD Guadalajara (A)1-0
- Aug 6 · v Querétaro FC (H)2-0
- Aug 2 · at LA Galaxy (A)0-0
- Jul 26 · at San Diego FC (A)0-1
- Jul 23 · at Portland Timbers (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | CD Toluca | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.