División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 19:00 · CDT Real Oruro vs Club Aurora
Likeliest: Club Aurora win · 48%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CDT Real Oruro28%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Club Aurora48%45%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CDT Real Oruro
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · at FC Universitario de Vinto (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Real Potosí (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at The Strongest (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · v San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (H)2-0
- Aug 27 · at Blooming (A)1-1
Club Aurora
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Nacional Potosí (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · at Guabirá (A)1-3
- Sep 11 · at San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v GV San José (H)3-0
- Aug 27 · at Club Always Ready (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | CDT Real Oruro | Club Aurora |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-5 | 2-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.