División Profesional (Bolivia) · Tue, Sep 15 · 19:00 · CDT Real Oruro vs Real Potosí
Likeliest: Real Potosí win · 56%
A 56% away win. The market says 39%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CDT Real Oruro21%36%−15
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Real Potosí56%39%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | 61% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 64% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 48% | −21 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CDT Real Oruro
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at The Strongest (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · v San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (H)2-0
- Aug 27 · at Blooming (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Bolívar (H)2-4
- Aug 15 · v Oriente Petrolero (H)2-3
Real Potosí
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 12 · v Oriente Petrolero (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Guabirá (A)1-1
- Aug 26 · v CD Real Tomayapo (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · at Club Aurora (A)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Club Always Ready (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | CDT Real Oruro | Real Potosí |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-4 | 2-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.