Serie B (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 17 · 19:30 · Ceará vs Juventude
Likeliest: Ceará win · 34%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 34% for the home win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ceará34%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Juventude33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 38% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ceará
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 13 · at Botafogo-SP (A)0-1
- Oct 8 · v Criciúma (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Avaí (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Operário-PR (A)2-2
- Sep 18 · v Novorizontino (H)2-1
Juventude
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 11 · v São Bernardo (H)2-2
- Oct 7 · at Ponte Preta (A)2-0
- Oct 2 · v Operário-PR (H)3-0
- Sep 28 · at América Mineiro (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Sport Recife (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Ceará | Juventude |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.