La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Dec 14 · 15:15 · Celta de Vigo vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 39%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta de Vigo39%35%+4
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−6
OursMarket
Athletic Club37%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 43% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 50% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta de Vigo
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Dec 11 · v Bologna (H)1-2
- Dec 7 · at Real Madrid (A)2-0
- Nov 30 · v Espanyol (H)0-1
- Nov 27 · at Ludogorets (A)2-3
- Nov 22 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-0
Athletic Club
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Dec 10 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-0
- Dec 6 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-0
- Dec 3 · v Real Madrid (H)0-3
- Nov 29 · at Levante (A)2-0
- Nov 25 · at Slavia Praha (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Celta de Vigo | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.