La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 22 · 15:15 · Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 40%
A 34% away win. The market says 23%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta de Vigo40%48%−8
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés34%23%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 44% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 77% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 68% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta de Vigo
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Mar 19 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-0
- Mar 15 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Mar 12 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-1
- Mar 6 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Mar 1 · at Girona (A)2-1
Deportivo Alavés
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Mar 13 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Valencia (A)2-3
- Feb 27 · at Levante (A)0-2
- Feb 23 · v Girona (H)2-2
- Feb 14 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Celta de Vigo | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Celta de Vigo form·Deportivo Alavés form·Head-to-head record