La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 3 · 12:00 · Celta de Vigo vs Elche
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 39%
A 36% away win. The market says 21%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta de Vigo39%54%−15
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Elche36%21%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 79% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 46% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 72% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta de Vigo
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 26 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
- Apr 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-1
- Apr 16 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-3
- Apr 12 · v Real Oviedo (H)0-3
- Apr 9 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-3
Elche
WinLossWinWinWin
- Apr 26 · at Real Oviedo (A)2-1
- Apr 22 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-2
- Apr 11 · v Valencia (H)1-0
- Apr 3 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Celta de Vigo | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.