La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Nov 30 · 17:30 · Celta de Vigo vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 51%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta de Vigo51%46%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−5
OursMarket
Espanyol25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 50% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 64% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta de Vigo
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Nov 27 · at Ludogorets (A)2-3
- Nov 22 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-0
- Nov 9 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-4
- Nov 6 · at Dinamo Zagreb (A)3-0
- Nov 2 · at Levante (A)2-1
Espanyol
WinWinLossLossWin
- Nov 24 · v Sevilla (H)2-1
- Nov 8 · v Villarreal (H)0-2
- Nov 2 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
- Oct 30 · at Atlètic Lleida (A)2-1
- Oct 25 · v Elche (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Celta de Vigo | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.