La Liga (Spain) · Tue, May 12 · 17:00 · Celta de Vigo vs Levante
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 49%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta de Vigo49%52%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Levante25%23%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 54% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 77% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 70% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta de Vigo
LossLossLossWinWin
- May 9 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-0
- May 3 · v Elche (H)3-1
- Apr 26 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
- Apr 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-1
- Apr 16 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-3
Levante
WinWinDrawLossWin
- May 8 · v Osasuna (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
- Apr 27 · at Espanyol (A)0-0
- Apr 23 · v Sevilla (H)2-0
- Apr 13 · v Getafe (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Celta de Vigo | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.